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Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

New Title Intends to Stir Debate

The duo have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's positions."

Request for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."